Investor Newsletter July 2025
The defining storyline of 2025 so far has been the aggressive trade and tariff policies - most notably the U.S.’s broad levies on China, Europe, and the rest of the World. These moves rocked markets and disrupted supply chains. The U.S. dollar recorded its worst first-half performance since the early 1970s, sliding over 10% against major currencies.
In our January 2025 Outlook we noted that the macroeconomic and geopolitical backdrop under a Trump-led America left markets susceptible to increased volatility due to the risk of a less benign tariff position and negative implications for global trade and growth. This has indeed played out when we experienced an extreme period of market volatility in March and April.
Our January 2025 Outlook also reminded long term investors that a volatile environment, requires a disciplined and robust approach to asset allocation and this has played out with markets recovering and reaching new highs.
In the first half of 2025, Ireland’s economy demonstrated remarkable resilience, although it was buffeted by global trade tensions and evolving geopolitical dynamics. Domestic growth remained strong, underpinned by both exports and surging public investment.
The newly formed Fianna Fáil-Fine Gael-Independent coalition, led by Micheál Martin, continue to navigate global political volatility.
In response to this global volatility and U.S. tariff threats, the government unveiled a €100 bn National Development Plan, funded partly by the Apple tax windfall and AIB share sales. The focus: housing, transportation, utilities, and energy-designed to bolster competitiveness and jobs.
Despite global headwinds, Ireland’s economy in H1 2025 has been characterised by strong, albeit front-loaded, growth, low inflation, and proactive public investment. Key vulnerabilities include U.S. tariff escalation and infrastructural bottlenecks.
In the Middle East, conflict between Israel and Hamas continues, additionally hostilities between Iran and Isreal flared mid-year, with Iran threatening to block the Strait of Hormuz, destabilising oil markets. Elsewhere, Russia-Ukraine tensions persist, while border conflict also erupted briefly in India and Pakistan. These developments reflect a broader global shift toward protectionism, nationalism, and regional instability, creating heightened uncertainty for investors and policymakers navigating an increasingly fragmented international order.
I hope you enjoy reading our latest newsletter and the various articles we have included in this July edition.
Mark O’Sullivan, Managing Director
